Predicting the Future
Resources for this lesson:
Key Terms:
Simulation
Probability Model
You will use your Algebra II Journal 
on this page.
> Glossary
> Calculator Resources
> Teacher Resources: Instructional Notes
Real-Life Scenarios
> Text version for animation
The girls set out to answer this question. The first website they find is a map that shows real-time lightning strikes in the United States. Visit this site with the girls:
> Lightning Strikes
(from The Weather Channel)
This is a bolt of lightning.
Are there any lightning strikes in Maryland?
Are there any clusters of lightning strikes?
Algebra II Journal: Reflection 1
Let’s perform a simulation to answer the question “Can lightning strike the same place twice?”
Storm chaser and photographer Dan Robinson researched this question and determined that there is approximately a 25% chance that lightning will strike the same place twice. You can read his research report at Lighting Myths .
First, develop a hypothesis regarding lightning striking the same place twice. Record it in your Algebra II Journal . Identify the population parameter as given by Mr. Robinson’s report above.
Instead of using given data, let’s collect some data! Since we cannot go out and “storm chase” a bunch of lightning storms, you will need a probability model in order to collect the data. This is just a tool to help collect the data. We will create a pretend lighting storm using a simple coin. This will be your probability model for the experiment.
Place a large sheet of paper on the floor. Stand above the sheet of paper and flip your coin. Using a marker, make a dot where the coin fell. The falling coin represents a lightning bolt, and the dot is where the bolt hit the ground. Now, flip the coin again. Did the ”lightning bolt” strike the same place twice?
Repeat this experiment ten times. Be sure to record in your journal how many times the lightning (i.e., coin) hits the original spot you marked.
Now analyze the lightning bolt results.
Form your conclusions about this experiment by responding to the following reflection questions in your Algebra II Journal . Submit your responses to your teacher
- How close were your results to the population parameter?
- Does your experiment support or reject your hypothesis? Use examples from your data, the population parameter, and what you know about statistics to support your answer.
- Based on the results of your experiment, would you predict lightning to strike the same place twice in the next lightning storm? Why or why not? Use the results of your experiment to justify your answer.
