Situation Simulated

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Each time you generate a number, it simulates a year going by and whether or not a hurricane occurs.

Suppose you want to find out what the probability is of experiencing a hurricane if you live in Ocean City, Maryland, for ten years.

First, you would have to generate ten numbers (one number for each of the 10 years living in Ocean City). That is one trial. Here is a set of ten randomly generated numbers:

94   11   1   55   86   98   28   28   13   6

Check Your Understanding

Check Your Understanding

Seven out of the twenty trials resulted in a hurricane. This means that, according to the results of this simulation, there is a 7/20 or 35% chance that a person who lives in Ocean City, Maryland, for ten years will experience a hurricane.

Would you expect Ocean City, Maryland, to have a hurricane this year based on your simulation?

Recall a statement from page 1 of this lesson "So, according to the table, Ocean City, Maryland, has a 4% chance of having a hurricane passing within 75 miles of it this year." Our simulation suggested that the chances are much higher at 35%.  Why is there such a difference?

In our simulation we conducted only 20 trials.  Many more trials would need to be done for us to see the results of our simulation produce a percentage closer to 4%. We need to remember that the 4% theoretical probability given in the table is based on data collected for many years.

 

 

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