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Situation Simulated

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Resources for this lesson:

You will use your Algebra II Journal opens in new window on this page.

> Glossary opens in new window
> Calculator Resources opens in new window
> Teacher Resources: Instructional Notes opens in new window

Here are the results of 100 simulations. Each dot represents one simulation, and the dots are plotted over the mean that resulted from the simulation.

This is a dot plot displaying the probability of a rain-out. The horizontal axis extends from 0.15 to 0.24, counting by increments of 0.1. The horizontal axis is labeled “Probability of a Rain-Out”. The probability 0.15 has four dots above it. The probability 0.16 has seven dots above it. The probability 0.17 has nine dots above it. The probability 0.18 has twelve dots above it. The probability 0.19 has twenty-one dots above it. The probability 0.20 has twenty two dots above it. The probability 0.21 has thirteen dots above it. The probability 0.22 has six dots above it. The probability 0.23 has four dots above it. The probability 0.24 has five dots above it.

Probability of a Rain-Out

As you can see, the sample means from the simulations form an approximate normal curve. The mean probability of a rain-out from our simulations is 0.195 with a standard deviation of 0.02.

Check Your Understanding

Algebra II Journal: Reflection 5

Respond to the following reflection questions in your Algebra II Journal opens in new window and submit to your teacher.

A weather reporter states that there is a 50% chance of rain for the next three days.

  • Design, but do not conduct, a simulation that will determine the probability that it rains all three days.
  • Describe how you would use your simulation tool to form a probability statement with 95% confidence about the chance of it raining all three days. (Do not actually perform these simulations.)

 

 

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